Friday 2 March 2012

On real appreciation


BRR (Brazilian Real) is on a valuation trend. Still, President Dilma is wrong in pointing the finger to the US and (especially) Europe alone. It is true that (mainly in the US) some measures were taken in the developed countries to protect their economies (and, in my view, actually, not enough, probably, at least in Europe). But we can't forget that a currency value is directly linked to productivity, and, as Brazilian economy gets modernized and Labor gets more qualified, productivity will go up and will tend to value the BRR. Dilma is trying to blame others on a movement that is just natural in economy.

Now, having siad that, if you base a country's economy on basic undifferentiated products, then, a currency valuation is bad news. And that is what Dilma fears - that by getting production more expensive through currency valuation, the commodities commerce that has been Brazil's engine source will eventually stop working as swiftly as it is. But Brazil economy is getting increasingly more competitive on other products as well, and its economy is swiftly moving towards value increase and not low cost. So, you know, BRR valuation willnot be easy to stop - and that might be good news to Brazilians, who will have an increased buying power. Let's see what happens in the next years...

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